Over the past month, the leadership in the House had to accept one significant change to their concept of healthcare reform; the public option will now have to act more like a private insurer at least in regards to how it will negotiate rates with providers. Instead of accessing the Medicare rates, the revised Bill calls for the government plan to pay the average of prevailing provider rates with private insurers (obviously the formerly confidential agreements between payers and providers will no longer be confidential at least as far as the government is concerned) .

At first glance, this would appear to be a significant and positive change for the future financial stability of hospitals. Under the old bill, the government plan would have had such an enormous advantage over private insurers in terms of what it paid providers in general and hospitals in particular that it was hard to see how the private insurers could survive. Their decline and eventual demise would have eventually reset provider rates across the country to Medicare rates, which do not cover the cost of operating hospitals by today’s standards.  Furthermore, the Health Choices Commissioner (HCC) was given power to restructure the payment methodology for providers that potentially could have caused even more havoc in the industry (the Bill still allows for experimentation with the Medicare payment methodology).

However, after reading the new House Bill that just got passed by the House, it appears there really is not much of a reprieve for providers if this Bill or something like it becomes law. The (HCC) was given even more powers to regulate the private insurance industry than the previous bill. These new powers in essence make all the private insurers de facto government run plans. The single most important new power is to approve annual premium increases. This gives the HCC the same power that the States have over their public utilities. There are several big differences however.  In my state, the Corporation Commission that has control over the public utilities rates is governed by an elected Board. They are not accountable to the State’s governor. The decisions of the Corporation Commission also do not significantly affect the State budget. As expensive as utilities can be, they do not make or break the State budget. By this bill, the HCC will be accountable only to the President and will have a powerful voice in how much the federal government pays for healthcare. The federal budget for this program will be significant and it will be very politically sensitive. 

The future HCC is going to face the inevitable squeeze of being between a rock and a hard place. As premiums continue to increase faster than inflation (as there are no cost reducing measures in this bill), the cost of the government provided affordability credits (subsidies to low income individuals and families to buy insurance) will rise as well. This will increase the pressure of the program on the government budget at a time when deficits are already projected to be high. One way to mitigate this budgetary pressure will be to fix the value of the affordability credits. If this is done however, the share of the premiums that lower income people will have to pay out of their own pocket will become unaffordable. This will be politically unacceptable. The other alternative will be to just tell the insurers that they cannot raise their rates as much as requested. This will be much more politically acceptable and reduce the pressure of the program on the government deficit.

By the time the above occurs, the insurers will also be restricted by the government’s target of maintaining at least an 85% medical loss ratio. As a result, they will not have the resources (or power) to implement tough new utilization standards that could help them reduce costs. They will not have any choice but to deny providers’ rate increase requests, the only cost they will be able to control (the government also dictates the benefit structure of each plan). Providers will not really have any alternative to accepting what the insurers offer because all the insurers will be forced to operate almost exactly alike. Providers could receive a double punch at this time. In recent years, providers have negotiated new rates with insurers to not only cover their increasing costs, but to also make up for the inadequate increases of Medicare and Medicaid. If the federal and state governments are limiting increases to providers through these programs at the same time, providers will feel enormous financial stress.

Eventually insurers and providers may again choose to experiment with capitation contracts (it is likely such a change would require government approval). Powerless insurers will want providers to take more risk for utilization and prices. Providers may prefer to take risk rather than accept pricing limits hoping that they can implement effective utilization and cost controls on their own. It seems that no matter what eventually occurs with healthcare reform, hospitals will have to become very innovative in lowering their costs.